Stossel: My political advice for 2016? Place your bets

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It was.

Polls reveal only a snapshot of current opinion. In 2011, Rick Perry led the polls for the GOP nomination with Trump-like 31 percent support. Betting odds at are the best predictor of who will win any election.

Polls are better, but not much.

The odds on the big unrestricted market in England,, are much more informative. Since you read this column, you are different from most voters. They’re not perfect, of course, but they’re better than everything else.

Pundits have a terrible track record. University of North Carolina researchers found that from 1868 to 1940, prediction markets “did a remarkable job forecasting elections.” More than $100 million was bet, sometimes exceeding the value of shares changing hands on Wall Street. Patrick Leahy and Orrin Hatch complained the m88 Hollywood stock exchange would lead to “speculation that is even more risky than the typical financial product.”

When a polling company reaches the rare person willing to talk to a stranger on the phone, chances are that person is not well-informed about politics. You think a lot about politics. That implies Trump has a 23 percent chance of winning the nomination.

Unfortunately, American politicians banned political prediction markets, with a few exceptions, like Presidential nominees are not yet taking up space in most people’s minds.

Right now, bettors know that Trump, even though he is ahead in polls, is unlikely to be the nominee. “Who do I support for the nomination? Uh, who’s running? I’m embarrassed! Oh, yes, Donald Trump!”

People think about food, sex, money, friends, jobs, success, family, health, religion, sports, fashion, video games, money, sex, food (I know I repeated those last three, but that’s where most people’s heads are). By October, Herman Cain was ahead. It shows the odds more clearly and will automatically update them every five minutes.

But the markets disappeared because America’s elites don’t like the idea of ordinary folks betting on important events.

Sadly, Hillary Clinton is a 95 percent favorite to win the Democratic nomination and has a 55 percent chance of becoming our next president. If Trump wins, everyone who owns that share gets $1. But when it was publicized, outraged Sens. But so what? In a free country, adults ought to be allowed to speculate.

Economist Robin Hanson says, “All our familiar financial institutions were once banned as illegal gambling. Sens. Yikes!

Prediction markets have a long track record. They picked Romney. Ron Wyden and Byron Dorgan held a news conference to say “encouraging people to bet on and make money from atrocities … Stock markets, commodity markets, insurance was banned.”

But people who bet knew better. European prediction markets are good at predicting Oscar winners, weather disasters, even “American Idol” winners. Ted Cruz comes in second. As I write, a share of Donald Trump winning the GOP nomination effectively costs 23 cents. needs to be stopped immediately.”

. That’s because you are not normal. Likewise, bettors anticipated the Obama victory that many polls and pundits missed.

Think the odds are wrong? Put your money where your mouth is! You could win money.

John Stossel is the author of “No They Can’t! Why Government Fails — But Individuals Succeed.”  Stossel appears regularly on Fox News Channel and Fox Business Network providing signature analysis. Marco Rubio is the favorite. Last election, Newt Gingrich and Dick Morris forecast a Romney “landslide.” Rush Limbaugh said, “All my thinking says Romney big. But candidates’ odds are somewhat off on that site because bettors may not trade more than $850 per candidate.

Want to know who the next president will be?

That’s dumb, because nothing is better at predicting the future. Most Americans don’t.

It might. Newspapers ran headlines like “Betting Odds on Roosevelt Rise to 7 to 1.”

Fortunately, American politicians don’t control the entire world, so I offer you the most accurate presidential race odds:         

Despite bettors’ good track record, few people know about the odds or how they’re created. It’s not even close.”

Don’t trust polls or pundits. … Trump and Jeb Bush are third and fourth.

That’s why the Department of Defense once asked Hanson to create a market to predict things like wars and terrorism. Betfair posts those odds in arcane gambling formulas, so producer Maxim Lott and I created the website By December, Newt Gingrich.

A few years later, politicians killed a prediction market that would merely have let people bet on the success of Hollywood films. Here’s how: computers average bets made on “prediction markets,” where traders buy and sell shares — like stocks — on each candidate

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Verona S. Pickens

Verona S. Pickens

If you have been betting on sports for fun and want to see how you can bring your game to the next level...whether you're a newbie gambler or a sports enthusiast learn how to get the money piling every day with proven sports betting techniques...
Verona S. Pickens

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